Among the surprises and snubs on this year’s list of Oscar nominations, was one that really shouldn’t have been shocking. Black Panther was nominated for Best Picture, which, again, should not have been so surprising — it was an excellent film and among the biggest box office hits in history. But it’s also a superhero movie from Marvel Studios, and until today, no superhero movie had ever been nominated for Best Picture. Black Panther is officially the first.

It’s certainly a deserving nominee, although there have been deserving superhero movies in the past. A case could be made it wasn’t the only deserving nominee in 2018, too; Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, which was nominated for Best Animated Feature (and might have a shot to win), could be argued for Best Picture — and definitely should have been a contender for Best Editing and Best Screenplay. But such is life; any superhero would tell you to take your victories where you can find them. And today’s a victory for Black Panther.

As for winning the actual Oscar, I would say the chances are slim. The frontrunners out of the nominees — BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, and Vice —are probably Green Book, which has won numerous preliminary awards this year, and Roma, the critical favorite. If you want to throw in A Star Is Born (or even Bohemian Rhapsody, which won the Golden Globe) as a long shot, that’s fine too. But I’d say Black Panther would rate behind all those films. (Even though I liked it better than all but Roma.)

We’ll find out for sure when the Oscars are announced live on ABC on Sunday, February 24.

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